In 2018, germanium did not seem as friendly to the metal as it was last year.
Starting this year, the price of germanium continued to rise sharply last year, climbing all the way to more than 10,000 yuan, reaching a peak of 10450 yuan / kg in early May. However, the germanium price of 10,000 yuan stayed for only two months before it fell for the first time in 21 months. From May to the present (September 26), the price of germanium has fallen by 1950 yuan / kg, down nearly 23%. Only in September has the price of germanium stopped falling sideways. So why did germanium prices start to fall all the way up and down in the past two years?
The price of germanium ingots falling back:
Environmental protection boosts germanium price for several months downstream exuberant market drives demand
Time: from the beginning of the year to April
In 2017, with the increasingly stringent national environmental protection requirements and the continuous promotion of environmental protection policies, some production capacity with substandard environmental protection requirements has been shut down, some germanium mining enterprises have taken the initiative to reduce production, and the supply side of the germanium industry has shown a decreasing trend. The supply and demand situation of the industry has been improved, the germanium price has gradually rebounded, the market has gradually warmed up after adjustment, and the prosperity of the industry has gradually picked up.
In addition, the demand for downstream optical fiber and health care is strong, and the expectation of commercialization of 5G in the future is driving the demand for germanium. At present, the development focus of germanium industry is still in the downstream application field, in which germanium is widely used in optical fiber, catalyst, solar cell and infrared optics.
According to foreign defense reports, the global military optoelectronic / infrared system market will reach US $16.35 billion in 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.71 per cent. The military optoelectronic / infrared system market has great potential in the development of new technology, and the growth trend is stable. It is estimated that the potential demand for germanium in China is 258 tons in military and 280 tons in civil domain. Based on the replacement cycle of infrared thermal imaging products for 6 ~ 8 years, the average annual market demand for germanium is 77 tons. The application field of infrared optics will be the most important growth point of germanium demand in the future, which represents the future growth direction of germanium. Another downstream product of germanium, germanium dioxide, is mainly used as a catalyst in Japan. The amount of germanium used in the production of PET in China is relatively small, but with the increasing awareness of environmental protection and health in China, Domestic demand for germanium dioxide is expected to grow slightly and remain stable over the next three years, with an annual consumption of about 23 tons. At the same time, in recent years, with the support of policy, the optical fiber communication industry continues to maintain rapid development, and germanium-based solar cells are also outstanding in the space field.
Germanium prices fall under pressure in de-inventory operation
Time: early May to date
Due to the persistently high price of germanium, some manufacturers who originally hoarded germanium began to ship germanium one after another, coupled with the successful restructuring of domestic mainstream enterprises, and carried out de-inventory operation. At the same time, all the export markets have shrunk, and the supply side of domestic germanium is relatively sufficient. Germanium prices began to fall slowly.
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